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双语 | 赵明昊:特朗普将中美经贸谈判推向长期僵局
发布时间:2019年08月18日  来源:中美聚焦网  作者:赵明昊  阅读:59
  特朗普总统宣布将在9月对剩余3000亿美元中国输美商品征收10%的关税,这打破了他今年7月在日本大阪与习近平主席会面时所做的承诺。近日,美国财政部将中国认定为“汇率操纵国”,这一决定显然与美国此前设定的相关量化标准不符,美国前财长劳伦斯·萨默斯等人对此举提出质疑和批评。作为回应,中国决定暂停购买美国农产品。虽然此前中美商定要在9月于华盛顿开启第13轮经贸谈判,但在两国紧张关系趋于上升的情况下,有理由担心新一轮谈判难以如期举行。
By deciding to impose a 10-percent tariff on the last remaining freely traded $300 billion of Chinese exports to the US starting in September, President Trump broke the promise he made in July after meeting President Xi Jinping in Osaka, Japan. More recently, the US Department of the Treasury designated China as a “currency manipulator,” a designation that is obviously inconsistent with previously set US quantitative standards. This classification prompted many, including former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, to question and criticize the judgment. In response, China decided to suspend its purchase of US agriculture products. Though China and the US had agreed to start their 13th round of trade talks in Washington in September, we have reasons to worry these anticipated negotiations may not occur as scheduled as tensions escalate between the two countries.


  实际上,特朗普加征新关税的决定曾遭到财长姆努钦、贸易谈判代表莱特希泽、白宫经济委员会主席库德洛的一致反对,只有总统高级顾问纳瓦罗表示支持。在白宫办公室,特朗普当着所有反对者的面,在推特上发布了这一决定。这一场景充分显示了特朗普决策的武断和任性。为了对其新的强硬对华政策赋予合理性,特朗普又决定给中国贴上“汇率操纵国”的标签,这可能为美国下一步推出更多伤害中国利益的举措打开方便之门。
In fact, Trump’s decision to impose the latest tariffs met unanimous opposition from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow — only Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President and Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, supported it. In his White House office, in front of all those who opposed it, Trump announced the decision on Twitter. The scene fully illustrated the arbitrary and capricious nature of Trump’s decision-making. In order to lend legitimacy to his tough China policy, Trump then decided to attach the “currency manipulator” sticker to China, which may open the door for the US to churn out more moves harmful to Chinese interests.


  美国财政部试图让IMF也认同中国是“汇率操纵国”,但显然专业性和理智占了上峰。8月9日,IMF发布报告称,尽管人民币对美元有所贬值,但中国外汇储备充足,没有迹象表明中国实施了大规模的汇率干预。大多数经济专家都认为,中国根本没有操纵人民币汇率,而是特朗普的贸易政策加剧了美元升值和汇率波动。他对中国大幅加征关税降低了对人民币的需求,鼓励资本流向美元进行避险。
The US Treasury tried to convince the IMF to also classify China with the “currency manipulator” designation, but professionalism and reason obviously prevailed. On August 9, the IMF released a report supporting its decision to not follow the US in declaring China a “currency manipulator,” stating: though the Chinese yuan has depreciated against the US dollar, China not only holds sufficient foreign exchange reserves but also shows no sign of having conducted large-scale interventions in foreign exchange rates. The majority of economists believe China has not engaged in the alleged manipulation of the Renminbi exchange rates, and it is Trump’s trade policies that have resulted in the appreciation of the dollar and exchange rates fluctuation. Trump’s dramatic mounting of tariffs has reduced demand for the Renminbi, and driven capital flow toward the dollar for risk aversion.


  重要的是,特朗普政府这一严重缺乏合法性的举动正推动中美摩擦从贸易领域向货币和金融领域扩展,这或许是一个改变棋局的重大变化。近日,中国人民银行高级官员已经发出明确警告,要防范美国对中国进一步启动金融制裁措施。
What’s important is that the Trump administration’s move — which is seriously lacking in legitimacy — is pushing China-US trade friction to new limits, extending beyond trade and moving into the monetary and financial fields, a move that may be a significant game-changing one. A high-ranking official with the People’s Bank of China issued an explicit warning the other day that China must prepare for further financial sanctions by the US.


  应当承认的是,在很多中国政策制定者和分析人士看来,特朗普正在成为一个不可靠的谈判对象,美国根本没有与中国达成经贸协议的诚意。特朗普和白宫的鹰派真正想要的就是美中经济脱钩。未来几个月,中国将迎来建国70周年大庆,很难想象北京会对美国的极限施压做出重大妥协。8月6日高盛公司发布的报告称,其已经放弃对2020大选前美中达成协议的预期。
It is an emerging reality that to many Chinese policy-makers and analysts that Trump is becoming an unreliable negotiation partner and that the US has no desire to reach a trade deal with China whatsoever. What Trump and the White House hawks really want is decoupling of the Chinese and US economies. In a matter of months, China will celebrate its all-important 70th National Day; it is unimaginable for Beijing to make a major compromise to the US. In a report released on August 6, Goldman Sachs said it had forsaken the prospect of the US and China reaching an agreement before the 2020 US general elections.


  毋庸置疑,中美贸易战升级将给双方带来实实在在的负面后果,而不是像特朗普和纳瓦罗所宣称的对美国无害。《华尔街日报》发表的社论警告,特朗普政府在贸易和货币政策领域所犯的错误正在侵蚀美国的经济增长,在对华新一轮攻势之下,美国将遭遇“纳瓦罗式衰退”。
Escalation of the China-US trade war will no doubt bring both parties tangible negative consequences — counter to claims by Trump and Navarro that it would be harmless to the US. A Wall Street Journal editorial has warned that the mistakes the Trump administration has made in such fields as trade and monetary policy are eroding US economic growth, and the US will encounter the so-called “Navarro Recession” under the new round of offensive moves against China.


  路透社发布的最新调查显示,70%的经济学家认为,贸易战升级已将美国陷入经济衰退的时间提前,未来两年美国陷入经济衰退的可能性已经高达45%,这是2018年5月以来的最高概率。此外,彭博社研究人员预测,目前的关税水平将分别对美中两国GDP 增长造成0.2%和0.4%的损失,关税成本将在2021年达到峰值。在美国对3000 亿美元中国商品征税,且中国进行反击的情况下,影响将升至0.4%和0.6%。
A latest Reuters survey shows that 70 percent of economists believe the escalating trade war has brought the next US economic recession forward, and the likelihood of the US sinking into an economic recession in the next two years has risen to 45 percent. This is the highest since May 2018. Bloomberg researchers also predict that current tariff levels will cut Chinese and US GDP respectively by 0.2 and 0.4 percent, and the cost of tariffs will peak in 2021. Such impacts will reach 0.4 and 0.6 percent under the United States’ move to impose tariffs on the $300 billion of Chinese goods as well as China’s retaliation.



  显然,对美国农业领域造成的影响是最直接的。近日,美国最有影响力的农业组织“美国农场主联合会”(AFBF)、第二大农业组织“全国农民联盟”(NFU)的负责人表态称,关税战正加剧美国农业部门的困境,特朗普不断升级关税的行为只会让事情变得更糟,美国的农场主无法长期承受这种压力。
Obviously the industries most directly impacted are the US farming sectors. Leaders of both the AFBF, the most influential agricultural organization, and NFU, the second largest, have stated recently that not only is the tit-for-tat nature of the tariffs worsening the troubles of US agricultural sectors, but also that Trump’s constant escalation of tariffs will only make things worse, resulting in US farm owners being unable to afford such pressures in the long run.


  与此同时,在贸易战升级的晦暗阴影之下,美国的制造业也出现警讯。美国劳工部数据显示,7月份美国新增就业岗位16.4 万个,但是几乎所有新增就业岗位都来自未受关税影响的服务业。正如白宫经济委员会前主席加里·科恩所言,贸易战没有赢家。特朗普关税抵消了大规模减税的利好,阻碍了美国制造业扩张。
Meanwhile, in the shadow of the escalating trade war, warning signs have also emerged in US manufacturing. Data from the US Labor Department show there were 164,000 new jobs in the US in July, but almost all newly added ones came from the services sector, which is yet to be affected by the tariffs. Just as Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council, said: there is no winner in a trade war. Trump’s tariffs have offset the dividends of large-scale tax reduction and obstructed the expansion of the US manufacturing sector.


  由于下一轮关税举措所涉及的大多是玩具、电器等日用消费品,美国的普通消费者也不得不为新的冲击做准备。反关税组织“关税伤害美国腹地”(Tariffs Hurt the Heartland)发布报告称,从2018 年贸易战开始到今年6月,美国企业和消费者已经支付了270 多亿美元的新关税,其中75%来自中国商品,而由于特朗普政府新的加征关税决定,更大的冲击将在9 月初到来。
Since the next round of tariffs will mostly involve daily consumer necessities like toys and electric appliances, ordinary American consumers will also have to prepare for the new shocks. A report by Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, an anti-tariff organization, claims that from the start of the trade war in 2018 to June 2019, American firms and consumers had paid over $27 billion for the new tariffs — 75 percent of which was from Chinese goods; As such, bigger shocks from the tariffs the Trump administration has just imposed are predicted to arrive in early September.


  总之,特朗普对华3000亿美元商品最新关税威胁以及美国将中国认定为“汇率操纵国”的决定,使两国经贸谈判遭遇新的重大危机。它还在改变中国方面对美国对华战略意图的判断,中国内部赞同对美国霸凌做法采取强硬回应的声音似乎在增长。特朗普做出的豪赌很有可能造成两国经贸谈判陷入长期僵局。更重要的是,未来几个月,美中两国国内的政治议程都会使双方妥协的空间收窄。而且,美中在香港、台湾等问题上的争执会进一步破坏开展经贸谈判的氛围。
To sum it up, Trump’s threat to impose the latest tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods and designation of China as “currency manipulator” has already brought a new and significant crisis to bilateral economic and trade negotiations. The tariffs are also changing Chinese judgments about the US’s strategic goal regarding China, as voices inside China supporting tough responses to US bullying seem to be becoming more prevalent. Trump’s unrestrained gambling will very likely sink bilateral trade negotiations in a long-term impasse. More importantly, in the next few months, domestic political agendas in both countries will narrow the room for compromise. Even more worryingly, China-US wrangling over Hong Kong and Taiwan will further poison the atmosphere for trade talks.


责任编辑/张玲 顾心阳

图文编辑/康巳鋆



作者:赵明昊,察哈尔学会高级研究员

来源:中美聚焦网,2019-08-16

原文链接:http://cn.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/20190816/41473.html(中)

https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/trump-pushes-china-us-trade-negotiations-toward-long-term-impasse(英)

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