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双语 | 贺文萍:美伊博弈:伊朗面临不利拐点
发布时间:2019年10月09日  来源:中美聚焦网  作者:贺文萍  阅读:85
  围绕沙特石油设施遭无人机袭击事件而不断升温的美国伊朗博弈,近日出现不利于伊朗的新拐点。自美国2018年5月单方面退出伊核协议以来一直力挺伊朗及伊核协议的英法德三国领导人9月23日在纽约联合国大会间隙会晤后发表了一份联合声明,该声明力挺美国,同声指责伊朗需要为袭击沙特油田设施负责,并敦促伊朗同意就其核能和导弹计划及地区安全议题进行新的谈判。
The game between the United States and Iran, which has been heating up since the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities in September, has recently taken a turn that does not favor Iran. Since the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, the leaders of Britain, France and Germany, which supported the deal, issued a joint statement after they met at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept 23. The statement sided with the U.S. and blamed Iran for attacking the facilities in Saudi Arabia and urged Iran to agree to new talks on its nuclear and missile programs, as well as regional security issues.


  英法德三国此次旗帜鲜明地站队美国的确有些出人意外,同时也对伊朗外交形成新的巨大压力。自美国单方面退出伊核协议以来,伊朗依仗欧洲对伊核协议成果的珍惜,采取了拉拢外加施压欧洲的策略来应对美国的“极限施压”。欧洲国家出于维护伊核协议的需要,也曾做出包括建立与伊朗的Instex特殊商业结算机制以维持正常对伊商贸联系在内的许多努力,来维系伊朗对伊核协议的承诺。
It is surprising that Britain, France and Germany have clearly stood on the side of the U.S. while exerting huge pressure on Iranian diplomacy. Since the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Iran has relied on European support and has adopted a strategy in which Europe copes with moves by the United States. To preserve the Iran nuclear deal, the European countries have also made efforts to keep Iran committed by setting up the INSTEX instrument of settlement for commercial accounts to maintain normal business relations.



  然而,伊朗对于欧洲“只打雷不下雨”、“口惠而实不至”的有限努力并不满意,并以恢复铀浓缩生产等分步骤逐步退出伊核协议的手段加以反制。毫无疑问,此次英法德三国在沙特石油设施遭袭事件上力挺美国,施压伊朗,背后也反映出三国对伊朗近一段时间来分步骤逐步退出伊核协议这一做法的不满。更耐人寻味的是,英法德三国不仅就沙特石油设施遭袭一事指责伊朗,而且首次公开呼应美国关于伊核协议重新谈判必须兼顾伊朗的导弹计划及地区安全议题的立场。
However, Iran is not satisfied with Europe just paying lip service, and it has countered U.S. action by resuming uranium enrichment and taking other steps to gradually withdraw from the nuclear deal. Without a doubt, Britain, France and Germany have helped the United States and pressured Iran over the attack on Saudi oil facilities, reflecting their dissatisfaction with Iran’s gradual withdrawal from the deal in recent years. What is even more intriguing is that the three European countries have not only blamed Iran for the attack on Saudi facilities but also publicly echoed the U.S. position that a renegotiation should cover Iran’s missile program and regional security issues.


  失去了欧洲三国外交支持的伊朗在此轮关于伊核协议的美伊博弈中陷入被动和孤立,因而有可能“退而织网”,以退为进寻求取消美国对伊朗的制裁。一方面,伊朗似乎难以洗刷掉袭击沙特石油设施的“罪名”。尽管也门胡塞武装反复认领这一袭击事件,但美国和沙特所持有的“证据”令胡塞武装的认领难以成功,反而促使欧洲三国坚定地站在了美国一边。另一方面,欧洲对伊立场的强硬将使伊朗最近采取的“分步骤逐步退出伊核协议”策略失去原有意义。因为这一策略的本意在于通过施压欧洲,换取欧洲加快落实对伊朗的各项支持。
Iran, having lost its diplomatic support from Britain, France and Germany, will be passive and isolated in this round of the U.S.-Iran game. Thus, it can look to lift the U.S. sanctions. It seems to be having a tough time washing off the drone attack. Although Yemen’s Houthi forces repeatedly claimed responsibility, the proof held by the United States and Saudi Arabia weaken the Houthi claim. Instead, the three European countries have shifted to a firm stand on the side of the U.S. Europe’s tough position will also make Iran’s recent step-by-step phasing out of the nuclear deal lose its meaning, because the original intent of the strategy was to speed up the implementation of support for Iran by Europe.


  因此,伊朗要走出这一不利拐点,就必须开始新的外交谋篇。伊朗外交部长扎里夫9月23日已经抛出新的试探气球,称伊朗可以与美国达成和解的新协议,即以德黑兰的永久无核化,换取美国对伊朗永久解除制裁。在被逼到墙角之时,伊朗又临门一脚把球踢到了美国一边。
Therefore, Iran must create a new diplomatic plan to avoid the unfavorable turn of diplomatic events. That is why Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif floated a trial balloon on Sept 23, saying that Iran could reach a new agreement with the U.S., with Tehran’s permanent denuclearization offered in exchange for a permanent end to U.S. sanctions. Forced into a corner, Iran kicked the ball back to the U.S. side.


更有趣的一个插曲是,就在美伊博弈剑拔弩张,美国总统特朗普声称美军已经“填弹完毕、锁定目标”之时,居然传来特朗普总统被提名为诺贝尔和平奖候选人的消息。姑且不论诺贝尔和平奖是蜕变为“止战”的“刹车阀”,还是呼吁和平的工具,就当前美伊博弈的走向而言,沙特石油设施遭袭事件不一定能成为“压死骆驼的最后一根稻草”而将美伊带入战争。代价高昂的全面战争双方都不能承受,面临2020年大选连任挑战的特朗普总统也不愿因一场战争既输掉选举,也失去他非常在意的诺贝尔和平奖。
A more interesting incident is that when the United States and Iran were in a state of mutual hostility and U.S. President Trump declared that the U.S. military was “locked and loaded,” news came unexpectedly that Trump had been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Thus, in the current U.S.-Iran game, the attack on the Saudi oil facilities is not necessarily the straw that breaks the camel’s back and brings the United States and Iran into military conflict. Neither side can afford the cost of an all-out war, and Trump, who faces the challenge of re-election in 2020, is not willing to lose votes over a war. Nor is he willing to lose the Nobel Peace Prize he is so concerned about.


责任编辑/康巳鋆 顾心阳



作者:贺文萍,察哈尔学会高级研究员,中国社会科学院西亚北非研究所首席研究员
来源:中美聚焦网,2019-10-02
原文链接:http://cn.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/20191002/41554.html(中)
https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/turning-point-for-iran-in-game-with-us(英)

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