I would like to present a brief account on Myanmar’s current situation and future prospect. Myanmar is still a beginner in reform implementations compared with other nations include China. But it’s a sweet and bit experience during a short span and lot of lessons can be learned from that. The three major tasks have to be carried out in the same time: sate building nation building and peace building. At the same time, multi-sectoral comprehensive reforms for all-round developments are required to be complemented. In international relations, the new government has to struggle to overcome the confusion at that time of the begging of our reforms, we called it new wine in the old bottle concept. We tried to convince it is true sense of the dominations of reform. As the president has admitted there are significant successes. Why many difficulties and challenges are still remaining to set out. In fact time is running out for current government. There will be a new general election in 2015. 

Some scholars are wondering the reform is in a slow pace compared to the beginning due to various problems such as community conflicts, political instability and socioeconomic problems are all hindering the process. Myanmar government is well aware of that. We’d like to lead out a foundation for democratic transitions and our basin in socioeconomic development as much as we can during this tenure. Actually, it needs enormous support and active participations of the general public.Thus there are many things to do in the short period with great momentum. The president calls it“waves of reform”in his recent speech. In my paper, Waves of reform will be discussed reflecting the current situations.

The first wave began at the outset of reform in Ali 2011 due to its introductions of multi-party democratic systems and the transformation from the old to new political system. During this wave the priority want to other tasks of national integrations and building of the political structure. The government released political prisoners, broadens political opposition groups into constitutional frame work and extended friends towards ethnic arm groups those we find are still fighting against the government. During that period, thousands of prisoners including prisoner of conscience were released by presidential amnesty and some of them became parliamentary members after winning the party’s election in 2012. Inside political edifice in Myanmar escaped abroad, who are invited to come home to contribute their skills and labor in state building process eventually some become advisors to the president.

It has been a daunting task to bring the oppositional force into the constitutional frame work,   the national for democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi yet too organized new constitution and refused to contest in the general elections in 2010. Thus it was still out of the political main stream at the beginning of the reform opposing everything the government was doing. But there were a lot of pressures from the common people who were so earnest to see the nation reconciliation and finally decided to register as a formal political party after the meeting of the president and Aung San Suu Kyi.

Another challenging task of national conciliations is the peace initiative.Previous national government has successfully negotiated with some foreign ethnic groups for temporary ceasefire agreement. However, some of these groups including the KIO and Work group refused to take part in the transformation process of the troop as foreign force. At the end of military government tenure, as a result sporadic commitments between the government troops and some foreign peace groups at the beginning of the current government era. There were some ethnic arm groups that were still out of peace initiatives such as KIANU. In such a difficult situation, the government has to revive the peace process when all of those groups are still out of the peace negotiations. 

At same time, new political structures such as three pillars of this state forum have to be established according to constitutions. It was unprecedented experience for all because there has been neither a presidential office in our parliament or for many years in our country. Everything was new, everyone has to start anew, but the mission for all is too heavy to carry with that limitation of resource and capacity. Likewise, many things have or be started from the scratches in the socioeconomic sector reform.

According to the official statistics, 22% of the population was living under the poverty line, majority of them are living in the rural area.  In light of this, poverty reductions in rural areas had been set as a top priority along with micro economic reforms. In social sectors, education and public health has received more attention to upgrade the life quality of life poverty common people. However, we need time to implement socioeconomic reform and more to see of this especially in the legacy of re-infrastructures, Institutions and capacity.

One of the significant changes in this stage of first wave is the opening of media, the censorship system was abolished in printed media and other relaxation in publications and registrations are undertaken.

In international arena, communication with western community was a appearing in the first wave. The US has changed its policy towards Myanmar from unilateral pressure for regime change to policy of reward and pleasure since the outset of the president Wu Momozu.

According to the dead policy, there were engagement activities between the two governments including exchange of high-level visits, track one meetings and bilateral cooperation group.

The ASEAN also includes Myanmar reforms with strong supports and unanimously endorse Myanmar to take the rotation of chairman positions in 2014. A crucial task for Myanmar foreign policy decision making in the first wave has been to maintain a balance approach in relation with both east and west. Myanmar’s present position is equal relation with east and west.

China, the most influential regional power with the largest population in the world, is always one of the most important immediate neighbors of Myanmar, while the US is the only super-power can create both good and bad things on Myanmar’s reform.

The first wave of reforms appeared to be successful to some extent especially in the political sector. Even though there are many challenges, the most significant event in the first wave was the initiation of peace process through various dialogues with ethnic arm groups.

We have proceeded to second waves in our mid-2013. The second waves of reform put emphasis on the strategic growth map for the political social economic reforms, administrative strategy reforms and private sector of roman reform in collaborations with legislatures general public and international community.

Political reform is the most critical and dispensable, since political strategy is of paramount importance of peace, tranquility and security of the people. The key essence of the political reform in this stage is to create a new form of political culture that is to utilize peaceful negotiation and compromise to overcome challenges of rising competition between political forces. Now the new government seems to be having successive dialogues and ceasefire agreement various ethnic minority groups. Relevant force by both sides in peace dialogues as the government has reached cease fire agreement with 14 out of 16 ethnic arm groups and significant decrease of arm pressures in the areas of conflict. In this stage, institutionalization of peace process was undertaken by both sides: the central committee for peace from the government and NCCD from the ethnic groups. However, there were some differences between the two sides. Likaiwu would like to have political dialogue before ceasefire agreements and the government prefers ceasefire first policy, due to such policy and technical matters, peace process could not attain dynamic momentum as expected before.

The legislative reform also has remarkable achievement in promulgating new laws and amending or repeating the outmoded old ones to cope with new political and social economic situations. More than a hundred draft bills were discussed in the parliaments and many of them were passed in a short period of reform. Those now increase the essential legislation for democratic practices.

In order to obtain such achievements, there are representatives from both tables of the parliament to spend each turn of one year in the parliamentary sessions. During the second wave the economic and social reform was joined through consultation of international communities including the United Nations. In light of that, renovation and financial revenues as well as financial sectors, monetary, trade and investment sectors are taking place. The obvious objectives of those measures are to create jobs, opportunities and livelihood to people, who are yarning for good benefits of the reform. In the administrative sectors, the government is ambitious in providing good governance. The representative of this new government governance was represented by the corruption laws. Governance should be more transparent and more countable with the procedures. In order to establish the efficient governance technical support and technology information was also provided.

Government programs are under way in various ministries and human resource department for discipline moral and efficiency. One of the significant changes of the administrative management is the formation of delivery units, compromising of the officials and ministries together to meet and check real situations in dealing with people and to take probation whatever is needed. Another important change in the administration is that the decentralization of power to local authority and agencies. The election process is now in the form of bottom up rather than the traditional top down system to the village and the bottom level.

Regarding for the poverty reduction and diplomatic level, it is crucial to carry out economic reform, anti corruption and poverty have been established including the organizations of farming and organizations of agriculture and macro financing, water resource, macro financing, electricity, health and education. Special economic zones, infrastructure and certain sectors such as tourism, wind power, economic growth. It is expected that opportunities encountered are for people. Privacy and reform owns more than 90% of the industrial investment sectors, dominating small and medium sized enterprises. General prospective on the economic situation seems to be positive. According to the statistics, the GDP growth is estimated 5.7% in fiscal year 2013 from a reverse 7.3% in fiscal year 2005. Growth was supported by rising esteem and improvement of business confidence by exports, tourism, wine and created by the government ambitious track of reform.

As a matter of fact, every reform is not one act. It is rather a winding process.And also, it is always true that reforms never run smooth, the road of reform is endless and is supposed to meet numerous changes. One is to encounter all of those changes, and one of another could never expect to have a chance to take a friend. Ours is no exception. There have been tremendous changes in political stability and security such as ethnic conflicts and boarder issues. International cooperation is also needed. Unfortunately, there have been misunderstandings between NGOS, ethnic communities.

The rapid development of information technology and use of social media had made things complicated by spreading rumors quickly. Some social programs from social economies such as infrastructures and government projects also causes unstable environment for society. The confrontation between law and enforcement agencies led to violence. Much more free media also become a uncomfortable situation for the government to send information to people correctly. The government is trying to implement media reform for creating a younger media through regulating the media with relevant law. However, there are some frustrations between the private media and the government agency.

Regarding for the foreign relations the Myanmar government is pursuing and benefits a lot is the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Myanmar is trying to seek good relations with all the nations in the world, especially with our neighbors. Due to strategically significant keys and relations between the two giant countries and among Asian countries, it is best for us to stand the position of equal balance in this multipolar world. This position is more important now because AsianPacific region becomes a major area for big power’s strategic game. Even though Myanmar is the largest country in the mainland of East Asia, it is a tiny actor in such sort of giants’power. We need stability and security in the delicate time of transitions. Specifically, Myanmar is paying more important attention on relations with some more important countries, namely, China, the US, ASEAN, and the EU for the sake of national interests. It is our core interest to keep guardian relationship with China and our neighbors. However, we have no intention to take positions in bilateral relations between other countries. Myanmar would be a responsible and friendly partner with all the nations in the world according to the policy of peaceful coexistence.

Apart from social economic disparity, the common situation should be paid serious attention as there are some extremists from both side seeking for right time and right place to ignite another incidence. And the election is coming. It is very sensitive situation for our country. As chairman of ASEAN, Myanmar will try its best for the interests of all the ASEAN members and the affiliated friends and the good relationship is better to continue with western community. However, some problems would not be eliminated easily due to complex border sides’politics. In conclusion, as a universal understanding that, reform must take time to succeed. Myanmar’s reform is more difficult comparing to other nation’s experience. China and Vietnam have successfully implemented democratic reform. And administration of these countries has no problem like Myanmar, yet it took about a decade to see the significant results of reforms. Myanmar is only three years old at the age of reform. The international community should assist us by pouring investment, opening trades, humanitarian aids and monetary capital.

In conclusion, let me express my sincere appreciation to the main organizers of this event, the Center for Myanmar Studies in Yunan University, the Charhar Institute, the department of social science from Hong Kong University and the department of International Studies from Yangon University and all the distinguished participants and scholars for your kind contributions and attention.

Thank you!